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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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