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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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