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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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