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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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