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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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