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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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