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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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