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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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