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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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