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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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