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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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