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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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