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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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