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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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