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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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