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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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