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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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