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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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