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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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