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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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