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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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