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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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