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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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