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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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