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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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