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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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