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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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