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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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