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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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