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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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