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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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