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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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