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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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