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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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