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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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