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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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