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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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