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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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