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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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