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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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