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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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