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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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