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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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