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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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