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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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