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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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