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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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