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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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