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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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