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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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