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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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