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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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