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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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