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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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