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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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