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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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