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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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