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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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