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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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