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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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