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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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