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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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