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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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