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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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