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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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