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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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