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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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