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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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