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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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